Categorized | Football, NFL

10 Universally Recommended Pieces of Fantasy Football Auction Advice (That Are TOTALLY WRONG)


Anyone who has ever considered showing up to a date based solely on someone’s online profile pics knows a key element of fantasy football: Anticipating just how much things have changed is crucial.

Not only that, things can change drastically between seasons: Running backs used to be the backbone of any successful fantasy lineup,  Teddy Bridgewater used to be able to put on his pants without the help of an intern, etc.

In fact, from season to season, the numbers for fantasy football season vary almost as much as the number of intact bones inside Tony Romo’s body.

The same goes triply true for the still-wild world of fantasy football auctions. Advice that was good one or more seasons ago can now be as useless as a backup tight end.

Luckily, staying ahead of the auction curve is my job. While I may not have the full-time numerical analysis of a mathematician, the closed-marked economic wisdom of a banker, nor the high holy days of nearly every other fantasy analyst, there is one thing I possess that few have: A laser-bead on the progression of fantasy football auction trends. With that in mind, I present 10 pieces of fantasy football auction advice I still see everywhere, even though they no longer apply to the modern fantasy landscape (or never applied at all).

One Dollar Players

Stop leaving a handful of dollars to pick up $1 players at the end. Good sleepers will rarely fall to the point that a $1 nomination will land a guy. $1 players are awful, they’re like 15th round draft picks. I don’t want to make 15th round draft picks once, much less over and over. Save at least enough to bid $2 or $3 on those really popular sleepers

 

Antonio Brown

Stop bidding over $60 on a player. Quit doing this, especially this year… RBs are in a down year and these WR1s went for $15-$20 less, last year

 

Cutesy Noms

Stop getting cutesy wth your early nominations. Just nominate the highest valued player you don’t want. This sucks the maximum possible value from the total money available. Don’t sneak out a guy you want early, it rarely works in the modern day when people actually know player values. Don’t nominate a defense or a kicker you want, it saves you a buck at most

 

Money on the Table

Don’t worry about leaving a little money on the table. By far, my best auctions are usually ones where I end up with ~5% of my money unspent. Rarely will I get every guy I want for the EXACT price I can pay for him. 5 % underbudget? You get all the players you want. 5% overbudget? You got outbid for players you wanted by a mere buck or two

 

Supply and Demand

Don’t expect a top 25 player to go for less than average auction value. It’s supply-and-demand in its most basic form: The supply of a particular player is 1, so as long as at least 2 owners want that guy (and they obviously will, these are top 25 players here), demand > supply and therefore the player will go above market value. For leagues with 12+ teams, don’t expect any of the top 50 players to go for anything that resembles a bargain

 

Max Bids

In the later rounds, don’t just nominate players you want for $1 every time. Sure this is a great starting place, but make sure to check everyone’s max bid. Frequently opening with $2 in a late round will price out everyone, as they all have max bids of $1 or $2

 

Pay for Defense

Don’t adhere to the “$1 for a defense” rule. In previous seasons, this was fine because you could stream. But now almost the entire league is trying to stream. It’s often much safer to throw out $2 or $3 for a top 5 defense to avoid this weekly waiver wire competition, altogether.

 

Too Complex Budget

Don’t micromanage or make too specific of a plan before the auction. Every auction is different, it’s reasonable for two auctions with the same owners to vary widely. If you’re trying to keep up with some specific plan of action, it will be much more difficult to adjust when the inevitable hiccup occurs

 

Bidding up players

Don’t bid on players you don’t want. “Bidding up” players is a high-risk, low reward strategy. At best, you made some guy bid $5 more than they wanted. At worst, you bid a chunk of change for a player you don’t want. Remember, other owners are going to get some steals, and that’s okay. Just worry about your own team

 

Position Nominations

Don’t nominate players for positions you’ve filled. This is easily the most commonly given incorrect advice I see. The logic goes “hey if I have my running backs, I should nominate running backs now so that other owners won’t get steals later.” That gives a slight advantage, sure… But nominating high-value players you don’t want in positions you haven’t filled also sucks a lot of money out of the pot, with the added bonus that you’re filling up position slots on other teams, minimizing the number of owners who will need to fill that position when a guy you like is nominated.

 

 

For more great galleries, STOP not clicking these links:

30 Fantasy Football Auction Steals for Owners Drafting This Week in ESPN, Yahoo, and NFL.com Leagues

13 High-Rated Fantasy Football Players (That Are Flat-out Bad at Football)

12 Stats That Will Totally Change Your Fantasy Football Auction Strategy

Leave a Reply




-->